Recruiting: Cold Water

We're all feeling pretty good right now, sure that Phillips situation was godawful but hey SoonerSquad17 is pretty great! That is all true, I'm not going to go on and tell you not to be excited about this class, cause you very well should be. This post is just to try to inject some reality on the nature of college football.There is a high bust rate on blue chip prospects due to a lot of factors, the following is just my casual observation after following recruiting over the last decade.


Can't miss prospects miss: Accept that fact, some of the kids we're pumped about right now won't make a meaningful on the field impact. That's okay! These kids will be good students, and teammates or will leave the program either with a degree or in good academic standing when they transfer out. They just won't make a splash on the field (2-5 players a class)

Knuckleheads Exist: Someone will get caught assisting multiple armed robberies and have to leave... Or they'll punch a women in a deli shop and probably should have been asked to leave. Bad shit will happen. (1-3 players a class)

NOOOOOO! Injuries unfortunately happen. A prospect might need major surgery and get recruited over leading to a transfer or may be needing to medically retire as to not risk quality of life.  (1-5 each class)

So Sooner Squad 17 is at 27 prospects today. It would be wise at minimum to not expect 5 of that 27 to have any positive impact on the field, and if the bust rate maxes out you're looking at maybe half the class not contributing. Anything above that is extremely high bust rate but it does occur  That's why it's incredibly important to recruit at a high level, the blue chip bust is coming.