This is a response of sorts to twitter buddies at The Prairie Report.
This Riley article here raises some good points on career stability but it misses the true big picture. Earning potential.
The assumption that Riley shouldn't leave Oklahoma for a "down" job" just doesn't mesh with the economics of it. Riley is only going to earn X at Oklahoma as an OC, even if he receives a raise and becomes the highest paid OC in CFB, he'll still lose out on millions when compared to a head coaching gig.
"He's young, he can afford to wait."
No- That's not how this works - you always strike when the iron is hot and especially in a sport dependent on 18-22 kids living up to potential and staying out of trouble. Sooner fans all hope we're rolling into Bowl season with a playoff contender and a Heisman trophy winner and that would be great, there's very little thought to what comes in 2018. The offense will have to replace Baker,Andrews,Brown at the very least, the 2018 offense will be overhaul and nothing is guaranteed. If you can jump off on a high note, Lincoln could and should for his own families financial sake.
"He's young, what if he fails?"
He's young.. He can afford to fail in his first gig if it happens. Riley would be in demand as OC regardless of failings as a head coach. He'd receive an OC gig at figure out what was wrong and then start over. He'd also have all the previous money from getting that sweet sweet buyout life if he failed
"Right Fit"
I absolutely agree Lincoln should be pragmatic and not jump for certain gigs - I mean I'd advise him against taking any historically poor program but we don't get to decide what is the "right fit" for Lincoln, he might have differing ideas what is a good fit based on his and his family desires. If Lincoln wants to go make 3.5 million a year and coach say Boston College where he has no recruiting ties - then bless him. If he wants to go coach at Ole Miss in the midst of a NCAA penalty phase then all of the negatives will still be outweighed because of money and his age (future earning potential)
"He should hold out for a winner"
Again, don't limit your earning potential waiting for the perfect fit, it's a career limiting move. Lincoln wont have to go far to find a perfect example of that. Merv could have taken other jobs but he held out for two positions in particular and it cost him the chance at being a head coach.
Final Thoughts:
Football is a sport of young lions and Lincoln is one of the brightest minds in the game right now; he's gonna be stalking his own savanna soon. Don't try to convince yourself otherwise, just recognize that's the best move for him.
Edit: 9:40 P.M
I was responded to. You can find the response/linked above
Just to clear the air: Lincoln isn't making close to Bob Stoops salary - he's making similar bonus money - not salary.
Riley elected to stay in Norman because while Houston is an active gig - contract demands would make moving on to a better job difficult . He stuck around not because of loyalty or entrenching himself, he backed away from an absurd contract - he was smart to do so as that contract is a career limiting move.
The success or failure of other wunderkinds is irrelevant to Lincoln Riley's ability or aptitude. Every coach in college football will do the same basic things eventually succeed, succeed and move on, or fail and be fired. Every first time coach you mentioned follows that pattern and frankly all of the first time coaches you mentioned are currently employed in some capacity after being fired at some point. Muschamp went from Texas DC ---> Florida HC -----> Auburn DC--> S.Carolina HC... That's job security.. That's earning a lot of money. That doesnt refute my point at all, it very strongly endorses my point that high level gigs will be reachable even with an early failure. The elephant in the room is no coach think he's not going to be successful either so it isn't like Riley is being timid here - he turned down Houston.
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